Health Care Reform: A Counterfactual

In all the smugness and anger surrounding the health care debate, it’s worth considering what might have happened if history were slightly different. All the talk of core American values and Battles Against Socialism is just standard media-baiting fare. The reality is that pressure to repair the American health insurance system has been building for years.

Under a President McCain

Dems Sign Health Care Bill

Under a President McCain, it would be a different assortment of white people signing a different bill. But the broad outlines would be the same.

I’m going to pretend McCain was elected in the last contest, but superimpose it over now. This is the broadest of overviews. The nuts and bolts of the health care debate still eludes my long-term memory, but I can imagine what the political puppet-show might have looked like.

Emboldened by a continuance of control over the White House , Republicans bill themselves as the party of solutions. McCain would present himself as bi-partisan and willing to compromise. Extreme right-wing resistance would lose its steam as more moderate elements seek a bill that reflects their values.

With regard to the provisions, it would be be weaker and probably not address the systemic problems we’re facing. Whatever benefits they can thrown at the elderly and toward their base, will be included. The Democrats would stubbornly negotiate for their concerns, but there would be a compromise of a fashion.

Then, as now, something will be seen as better than nothing. The difference, though, would be that both parties could claim credit.

In the worst case, if Republicans didn’t have the support that they needed, they’d pass it through reconciliation. The difference is that it would be uncontroversial.

Build Your Own Memories

What’s striking to me is that how we remember these events is strongly influenced by factors that have nothing to do with the thing itself and everything to do with how the thing feels. All this right-wing talk about protecting free market principles is a recurring lie.

When a Democrat lives in the White House, the same thing happens every time. Republicans have a jail-cell conversion, remember all that old stuff about limited governance, then start taking Libertarians onto news-talk shows. Then the seconds Republicans gain enough leverage to steer matters themselves, they get sudden and explosive amnesia.

Revisionist History

When I hear the term “revisionist history” in hushed, dangerous tones, I laugh to myself. All history is revisionist. Each generation – and each faction within that generation – has their own take on what came before. There is no font of pure history to hold a bucket under.

Admitting that simple fact would be an intellectually honest way to start the discussion of policy, but it would reveal too much about our uncomfortable selves. Instead, we opt for hallucination. It feels more comforting, doesn’t tax us terribly much, and leaves us confused at the changing present.

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1 Comment

Filed under Critical Thinking, Politics, Predictions

One Response to Health Care Reform: A Counterfactual

  1. Pingback: Tea Party Counterfactual | The Long Game

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